Models ====== HAMLET's simulation framework is built upon detailed mathematical models that define the behavior of key energy system components and decision-making processes. This section provides an in-depth look into the various models used, their assumptions, and mathematical formulations. HAMLET's models are categorized into two main groups: 1. **Component Models**: These describe the physical behavior of energy system elements, such as energy consumption, generation, and storage. 2. **Home Energy Management System (HEMS)**: This includes forecasting, control strategies, and trading mechanisms that enable decision-making. Component Models ---------------- HAMLET models various energy system components to simulate decentralized energy systems accurately. The key component models include: - **Electricity Load**: Models demand patterns based on occupancy, appliance usage, and stochastic variations. - **PV Generation**: Uses weather data and panel specifications to compute solar power generation. - **Wind Power**: Simulates wind-based electricity generation based on wind speed distributions and turbine efficiency. - **Battery Storage**: Captures state-of-charge dynamics, charge/discharge efficiency, and degradation effects. - **Heat Demand**: Computes thermal energy needs based on building properties, external temperatures, and user preferences. - **Electric Vehicles**: Models driving patterns, charging behavior, and vehicle-to-grid interactions. - **Grid Constraints**: Includes voltage and line capacity constraints affecting power flows. Home Energy Management System (HEMS) ------------------------------------ The HEMS models determine how agents interact with markets, grids, and their own energy assets. It is structured into: - **Forecasting Methods**: Predict future energy demand, generation, and market prices using: - Naïve methods (e.g., persistence models) - Statistical models (e.g., SARMA, ARIMA) - Machine learning techniques (e.g., Random Forest, Neural Networks) - **Control Strategies**: Optimize energy usage based on: - Rule-Based Control (predefined heuristics) - Model Predictive Control (MPC) - Reinforcement Learning (self-learning agent behavior) - **Trading Strategies**: Determine how agents buy and sell energy in markets, including: - Zero Intelligence (randomized bids) - Linear Bidding (progressively adjusted offers) - Retailer-based pricing (buying/selling at fixed prices)